Prediction History
Predictions are graded by a fresh, independent LLM call once their target date passes.
Overview
| Total predictions | Graded | Correct | Ambiguous | Pending | Overall hit rate | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1215 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1199 | 91% | 94% |
Confidence calibration
Does an 85% call actually land ~85% of the time? Needs 5+ graded to show a rate.
| Confidence band | Graded (n) | Actual hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0-49% | 0 | n < 5 |
| 50-69% | 0 | n < 5 |
| 70-84% | 2 | 100% |
| 85-100% | 9 | 89% |
Per-company
| Ticker | Total | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 27 | 0 | — |
| ABNB | 28 | 0 | — |
| ADBE | 18 | 0 | — |
| AFRM | 27 | 1 | 100% |
| AMD | 13 | 0 | — |
| AMZN | 9 | 0 | — |
| AVGO | 20 | 0 | — |
| BA | 23 | 0 | — |
| COIN | 20 | 0 | — |
| COST | 10 | 0 | — |
| CRM | 32 | 1 | 100% |
| CRWD | 36 | 2 | 100% |
| DASH | 20 | 0 | — |
| DDOG | 22 | 0 | — |
| DIS | 25 | 0 | — |
| F | 20 | 0 | — |
| FTNT | 9 | 0 | — |
| GM | 24 | 0 | — |
| GOOGL | 11 | 0 | — |
| GS | 8 | 0 | — |
| GTLB | 17 | 0 | — |
| HOOD | 13 | 0 | — |
| INTC | 15 | 0 | — |
| INTU | 26 | 0 | — |
| JNJ | 24 | 0 | — |
| JPM | 16 | 0 | — |
| LMT | 13 | 0 | — |
| MA | 14 | 0 | — |
| MDB | 14 | 0 | — |
| META | 26 | 0 | — |
| MSFT | 10 | 0 | — |
| MU | 16 | 0 | — |
| NET | 18 | 0 | — |
| NFLX | 12 | 0 | — |
| NKE | 22 | 0 | — |
| NOW | 17 | 0 | — |
| NVDA | 36 | 2 | 100% |
| OKTA | 22 | 2 | 100% |
| ORCL | 13 | 0 | — |
| PANW | 13 | 0 | — |
| PFE | 22 | 0 | — |
| PLTR | 14 | 0 | — |
| PYPL | 22 | 0 | — |
| QCOM | 9 | 0 | — |
| RBLX | 17 | 0 | — |
| RIVN | 17 | 0 | — |
| S | 20 | 0 | — |
| SBUX | 20 | 0 | — |
| SHOP | 14 | 0 | — |
| SNAP | 25 | 0 | — |
| SNOW | 9 | 1 | 0% |
| SPOT | 22 | 0 | — |
| TEAM | 21 | 0 | — |
| TSLA | 32 | 1 | 100% |
| TWLO | 24 | 0 | — |
| TXN | 13 | 0 | — |
| U | 21 | 0 | — |
| UBER | 18 | 0 | — |
| V | 23 | 0 | — |
| WDAY | 20 | 1 | 100% |
| WMT | 21 | 0 | — |
| XOM | 30 | 0 | — |
| ZS | 22 | 0 | — |
Recently graded
correct
WDAY — Workday will provide a material update on its Q2 2026 earnings performance and outlook within 1 day (News, 2026-08-26).
95% confidence · target 2026-08-28
· The prediction was for a material update on Q2 2026 earnings performance and outlook within 1 day of 2026-08-26, and multiple news articles confirm Workday released its Q2 2027 financial results on 2026-08-27, which is within the specified timeframe.
ambiguous
CRWD — Prediction: The company will provide further details or roadmap updates regarding its AI strategy and the impact of the CTO's departure during its upcoming Q2 earnings call this week.
85% confidence · target 2026-08-28
· The provided signals focus heavily on CrowdStrike's Q2 2027 financial results, stock performance, and AI-related growth, but none of the articles or materials explicitly mention whether the company provided further details or roadmap updates regarding its AI strategy and the impact of the CTO's departure during the earnings call.
incorrect
SNOW — - Snowflake will release Q2 FY2027 earnings results.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-29
· None of the provided signals mention or confirm the release of Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 earnings results.
correct
CRWD — The company will probably discuss AI-driven growth metrics and roadmap during their Q2 earnings call this week.
90% confidence · target 2026-08-29
· The prediction is confirmed by the "CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q2 2027 Earnings Call Summary" news article, which states that "During the call, CrowdStrike discussed its AI-driven growth metrics and roadmap."
correct
NVDA — NVIDIA will announce Q2 earnings results.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-29
· The news article "NVIDIA Corporation 2027 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:NVDA) 2026-08-27" explicitly confirms that NVIDIA announced its Q2 earnings results.
correct
NVDA — NVIDIA will formally report strong Q2 revenue growth driven by AI data center demand.
90% confidence · target 2026-08-29
· The prediction is confirmed by the "NVIDIA Corporation 2027 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:NVDA) 2026-08-27" news article, which explicitly states NVIDIA reported strong Q2 revenue growth driven by AI data center demand.
ambiguous
AFRM — Affirm will discuss international growth metrics and strategy during today's earnings call.
90% confidence · target 2026-08-27
· None of the provided signals explicitly confirm or deny whether Affirm discussed international growth metrics and strategy during the earnings call.
ambiguous
AFRM — Affirm will provide updated guidance on international expansion during the earnings call.
85% confidence · target 2026-08-27
· None of the provided signals specifically mention or confirm whether Affirm provided updated guidance on international expansion during the earnings call.
correct
AFRM — Affirm will announce Q4 earnings results on August 27.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-27
· Multiple news articles from August 27, 2026, specifically reference "Affirm earnings ahead," confirming that the company announced its Q4 earnings results on this date.
ambiguous
NVDA — NVIDIA will provide specific details or context for its recent material event disclosures during its Q2 earnings call today.
90% confidence · target 2026-08-26
· The provided signals discuss Nvidia's Q2 earnings call and financial results, but none explicitly confirm whether the company provided specific details or context for its recent material event disclosures during the call.
correct
CRM — The company will provide Q2 earnings results and forward guidance, with market reaction likely to be significant based on the current high level of anticipation.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-26
· Multiple news articles and an SEC 8-K filing confirm Salesforce provided Q2 earnings results and forward guidance on August 26, 2026, with significant market reaction evidenced by stock price movements and analyst commentary.
correct
OKTA — - Okta will announce Q2 earnings results on 2026-08-26, including details on revenue, earnings per share, and growth metrics.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-26
· The prediction is confirmed by multiple news articles and an SEC filing on 2026-08-26 reporting Okta's Q2 FY2027 earnings results, including revenue, earnings per share, and growth metrics.
correct
TSLA — Cybertruck price increase takes effect immediately.
100% confidence · target 2026-08-25
· The article "Elon Musk's Tesla Hikes Cybertruck Prices by More Than 7% Despite Sluggish Sales" explicitly confirms that Tesla increased Cybertruck prices.
ambiguous
CRWD — Q2 earnings call will address CTO departure impact and Falcon Flex growth sustainability.
80% confidence · target 2026-08-25
· None of the provided signals explicitly confirm whether the Q2 earnings call addressed the CTO departure impact or Falcon Flex growth sustainability.
correct
OKTA — Okta will disclose Q2 earnings on 2026-08-26, likely detailing AI agent adoption and international growth.
80% confidence · target 2026-08-26
· The prediction was accurate: Okta disclosed Q2 earnings on 2026-08-26, as evidenced by the Business Wire press release "Okta Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results" dated 2026-08-26 20:01:00, and the earnings call materials and news coverage from that date confirm the discussion of AI agent adoption and international growth.
correct
CRWD — CrowdStrike will release Q2 earnings emphasizing AI/ML growth.
80% confidence · target 2026-08-25
· The prediction is confirmed by multiple news articles explicitly stating that CrowdStrike's Q2 earnings call highlighted AI/ML growth, such as "CrowdStrike rockets as Q2 results demonstrate AI-related market share gains: analysts" and "CrowdStrike’s stock soars after AI fuels the cybersecurity company’s ‘best quarter in history’".